Nick Chubb Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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NFL · Player Props

Nick Chubb

RB · Cleveland Browns

Rushing Yards

Cleveland Browns vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 8, 2024

Updated Oct 28, 2024 12:11 AM EST

Analysis

Nick Chubb Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 46.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 44.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 46.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Right now, the 7th-quickest paced offense in football (in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Cleveland Browns.
The model projects Nick Chubb to accumulate 13.5 rush attempts in this game, on average, putting him in the 75th percentile when it comes to running backs.
While Nick Chubb has been responsible for 44.8% of his team's rush attempts in games he has played since the start of last season, the predictive model expects him to be much more involved in Cleveland's ground game in this game at 55.7%.
Nick Chubb's rushing effectiveness (4.81 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in the league since the start of last season (83rd percentile among RBs).
Nick Chubb checks in as one of the leading RBs in football at generating extra running yardage, averaging an outstanding 3.38 yards-after-contact since the start of last season while ranking in the 89th percentile.

Favors Under

The Cleveland Browns will be starting backup QB Jameis Winston this week, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Browns are a 5.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
Our trusted projections expect the Cleveland Browns to be the 6th-least run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 38.4% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This year, the stout Ravens run defense has given up a measly 66.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to opposing offenses: the best in football.
As it relates to the defensive ends' role in stopping the run, Baltimore's collection of DEs has been very good this year, grading out as the 3rd-best in the league.