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Nick Chubb

Nick Chubb Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 15

Cleveland Browns vs Kansas City Chiefs

Nick Chubb Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 39.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 40.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 39.5 @ -120.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is expected by the predictive model to see 148.3 plays on offense run: the highest number on the slate this week.

The largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Browns this year (a massive 62.8 per game on average).

Windy weather conditions (like the 17-mph being forecasted in this game) generally mean lessened passing efficiency, lower air attack volume, and increased rush volume.

The projections expect Nick Chubb to accumulate 14.8 rush attempts in this week's contest, on balance, putting him in the 80th percentile when it comes to running backs.

Nick Chubb has been a more integral piece of his offense's running game this season (59.6% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (41.8%).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

At a -4.5-point disadvantage, the Browns are underdogs this week, indicating more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their usual game plan.

Our trusted projections expect the Browns as the least run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 21.0% run rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

Nick Chubb's 3.1 adjusted yards per carry this season reflects a significant reduction in his running prowess over last season's 5.9 mark.

Opposing squads have rushed for the 3rd-fewest adjusted yards in the league (just 88.0 per game) vs. the Chiefs defense this year.

The Chiefs safeties project as the 5th-best group of safeties in the NFL this year in regard to stopping the run.

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