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Nick Chubb

Nick Chubb Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 12

Cleveland Browns vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Nick Chubb Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 52.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 50.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 52.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the projection model to see 137.5 offensive plays run: the most on the slate this week.

The most plays in the NFL have been called by the Cleveland Browns this year (a colossal 62.6 per game on average).

The weather report calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.

The model projects Nick Chubb to accrue 17.6 carries in this contest, on average, placing him in the 85th percentile among running backs.

After making up 41.8% of his team's carries last season, Nick Chubb has played a bigger part in the run game this season, currently comprising 66.7%.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This game's line implies a passing game script for the Browns, who are -3.5-point underdogs.

Our trusted projections expect the Browns as the 5th-least run-focused offense on the slate this week with a 41.4% run rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.

Nick Chubb's running efficiency has declined this season, averaging just 2.65 adjusted yards-per-carry vs a 5.93 figure last season.

This year, the daunting Steelers run defense has allowed a meager 90.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to opposing offenses: the 4th-fewest in the league.

The Pittsburgh Steelers safeties project as the 2nd-best safety corps in the NFL this year with their run defense.

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