Nick Chubb Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Nick Chubb

NFL · Player Props

Nick Chubb

RB · Cleveland Browns

Rushing Yards

Cleveland Browns vs New England Patriots · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Nick Chubb Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 93.5 (+101/-128).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 93.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 93.5 @ -128.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Browns are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns as the 3rd-most run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 50.1% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Cleveland Browns have called the 4th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 65.0 plays per game.
The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Nick Chubb to total 17.5 rush attempts in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 97th percentile among running backs.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Cleveland Browns have gone up against a stacked the box on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in the league. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The New England Patriots have stacked the box against opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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