Nick Chubb Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

NFL · Player Props

Nick Chubb

RB · Cleveland Browns

Rushing Yards

Cleveland Browns vs New York Jets · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 7:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Nick Chubb Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 81.5 (-145/+115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 81.5 @ -135 before it was bet up to 81.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Browns are a 6-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns as the 2nd-most run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 53.0% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Nick Chubb to accumulate 17.2 carries in this week's contest, on average, putting him in the 95th percentile among running backs.
Nick Chubb has garnered 56.4% of his team's carries this year, placing him in the 87th percentile among running backs.
The Cleveland Browns O-line profiles as the best in the league since the start of last season at opening holes for rushers.

Favors Under

The Cleveland Browns will be forced to start backup QB Jacoby Brissett in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 122.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Cleveland Browns have played in the 2nd-most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which ought to result in higher pass volume, lower running volume, and improved pass game efficiency when facing better conditions this week.
The Cleveland Browns have gone up against a stacked the box on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The New York Jets have stacked the box vs. opponents on 22.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.