Nick Chubb Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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NFL · Player Props

Nick Chubb

RB · Cleveland Browns

Rushing Yards

Cleveland Browns vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 18, 2022 1:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Nick Chubb Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 75.5 (+120/-152).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 75.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 75.5 @ -152.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Browns are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns to be the 7th-most run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 48.9% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Cleveland Browns have called the 5th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 62.5 plays per game.
The weatherman calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Nick Chubb to notch 17.5 carries in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 92nd percentile among RBs.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Browns to call the 3rd-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.2 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing squads have run for the 3rd-least yards in the NFL (just 82 per game) vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense this year.
The Baltimore Ravens defensive tackles rank as the 7th-best DT corps in the NFL this year when it comes to stopping the run.
The Cleveland Browns have been faced with a stacked the box on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Baltimore Ravens have stacked the box versus opponents on 18.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.