Nick Chubb Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Nick Chubb

NFL · Player Props

Nick Chubb

RB · Cleveland Browns

Rushing Yards

Buffalo Bills vs Cleveland Browns · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 20, 2022 8:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Nick Chubb Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 75.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 75.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 75.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns to be the 4th-most run-heavy team in football (in a neutral context) right now with a 43.7% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects Nick Chubb to earn 15.3 carries in this contest, on average, placing him in the 83rd percentile among running backs.
Nick Chubb has earned 60.5% of his offense's rush attempts this year, ranking in the 92nd percentile among RBs.
The Cleveland Browns O-line grades out as the best in football this year at opening holes for runners.
Nick Chubb has run for a lot more yards per game (101.0) this season than he did last season (86.0).

Favors Under

The Browns are a 3-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns offense to be the 8th-slowest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 29.10 seconds per play.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing squads have run for the 6th-least yards in the league (just 109 per game) against the Buffalo Bills defense this year.
The Cleveland Browns have faced a stacked the box on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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