Nick Chubb Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Nick Chubb

NFL · Player Props

Nick Chubb

RB · Cleveland Browns

Rushing Yards

Carolina Panthers vs Cleveland Browns · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 7:38 PM UTC

Analysis

Nick Chubb Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 73.5 (-110/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 81.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 73.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns to be the 7th-most run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 45.0% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Nick Chubb to notch 14.9 carries in this contest, on average, placing him in the 91st percentile among RBs.
The Cleveland Browns offensive line profiles as the best in the league since the start of last season at blocking for rushers.
Nick Chubb has averaged 86.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the largest figures in the NFL among running backs (98th percentile).
Nick Chubb's rushing effectiveness (5.31 yards per carry) has been some of the best in the NFL since the start of last season (95th percentile among running backs).

Favors Under

The Cleveland Browns will be rolling with backup quarterback Jacoby Brissett this week, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns offense to be the 4th-worst paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 28.42 seconds per snap.
The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Nick Chubb to be much less involved in his offense's running game this week (52.5% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (62.5% in games he has played).
The Carolina Panthers defense has had the 10th-best efficiency against opposing rushing attacks since the start of last season, giving up just 4.32 yards-per-carry.

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