Nick Chubb Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Nick Chubb

NFL · Player Props

Nick Chubb

RB · Cleveland Browns

Rushing TD

Cleveland Browns vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 31, 2022 11:56 PM UTC

Analysis

Nick Chubb Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-134/+101).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -134.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns to be the 3rd-most run-oriented team in the NFL near the end zone (context-neutralized) right now with a 49.8% red zone run rate.
The Cleveland Browns have run the 7th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 62.6 plays per game.
Nick Chubb has earned 51.5% of his team's red zone rush attempts this year, ranking in the 85th percentile among running backs.
The Cleveland Browns O-line profiles as the 2nd-best in the NFL this year at opening holes for rushers.
Nick Chubb has rushed for 1.14 TDs per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the largest marks in football among RBs (100th percentile).

Favors Under

The Browns are a 3.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Browns to call the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.2 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing squads have rushed for the 3rd-least touchdowns in football (0.43 per game) vs. the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year.
The Cleveland Browns have gone up against a stacked the box on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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