Nick Chubb Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Nick Chubb

NFL · Player Props

Nick Chubb

RB · Cleveland Browns

Rushing TD

Cincinnati Bengals vs Cleveland Browns · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 12, 2022 1:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Nick Chubb Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+108/-144).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +112 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +108.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns to be the 5th-most run-centric team in the league near the goal line (context-neutralized) right now with a 49.1% red zone run rate.
The Cleveland Browns have called the 5th-most plays in football this year, totaling a whopping 62.1 plays per game.
Nick Chubb has been given 57.9% of his team's red zone rush attempts this year, ranking in the 92nd percentile among RBs.
The Cleveland Browns O-line ranks as the 9th-best in the NFL this year at run-game blocking.
Nick Chubb has run for 1.00 touchdowns per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the biggest marks in football among running backs (99th percentile).

Favors Under

The Browns are a massive 7.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Browns to run the 7th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Cincinnati Bengals safeties rank as the 10th-best group of safeties in the league this year with their run defense.
The Cleveland Browns have faced a stacked the box on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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