Nick Chubb Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Nick Chubb

NFL · Player Props

Nick Chubb

RB · Cleveland Browns

Rushing TD

Cleveland Browns vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 27, 2022 6:06 PM EST

Analysis

Nick Chubb Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+119/-159).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -141 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -159.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns to be the 5th-most run-heavy team in the NFL near the goal line (adjusted for context) right now with a 49.0% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Browns to call the most total plays on the slate this week with 68.2 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Cleveland Browns have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a monstrous 62.1 plays per game.
Nick Chubb has been given 54.7% of his team's red zone rush attempts this year, ranking him in the 88th percentile among running backs.
The Cleveland Browns offensive line ranks as the 4th-best in football this year at blocking for rushers.

Favors Under

The Browns are a big 7.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
Opposing squads have rushed for the 3rd-least touchdowns in football (0.50 per game) against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year.
The Cleveland Browns have faced a stacked the box on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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