Nick Chubb Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Nick Chubb

NFL · Player Props

Nick Chubb

RB · Cleveland Browns

Rushing TD

Miami Dolphins vs Cleveland Browns · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 13, 2022 9:06 PM EST

Analysis

Nick Chubb Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-120/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns as the 2nd-most run-oriented offense in the NFL near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 50.6% red zone run rate.
The Cleveland Browns have run the 4th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 62.4 plays per game.
Nick Chubb has earned 52.9% of his team's red zone rush attempts this year, placing him in the 88th percentile among running backs.
The Cleveland Browns offensive line grades out as the 3rd-best in the league this year at opening holes for runners.
Nick Chubb has run for 1.25 touchdowns per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the biggest figures in football among RBs (100th percentile).

Favors Under

The Browns are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 127.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Cleveland Browns have faced a stacked the box on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Miami Dolphins have stacked the box vs. opponents on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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