Nick Chubb Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Nick Chubb

NFL · Player Props

Nick Chubb

RB · Cleveland Browns

Receiving Yards

Cleveland Browns vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 10, 2023 5:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Nick Chubb Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (+200/-275).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 12.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 13.5 @ +200.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cleveland Browns have called the 6th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a colossal 60.9 plays per game.
Nick Chubb has played on 53.9% of his team's snaps since the start of last season, putting him in the 75th percentile among running backs.
The Cleveland Browns O-line grades out as the 4th-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.
Nick Chubb has been among the most efficient receivers in football among running backs, averaging a stellar 7.20 yards-per-target since the start of last season while grading out in the 87th percentile.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns as the 8th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 55.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Browns to call the 3rd-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 61.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has surrendered the 3rd-lowest Completion% in the league (73.7%) to RBs since the start of last season (73.7%).
The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has shown good efficiency vs. RBs since the start of last season, yielding 5.17 yards-per-target to the position: the 4th-least in the NFL.
The Cincinnati Bengals linebackers grade out as the 2nd-best LB corps in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

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