Nick Chubb Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Nick Chubb

NFL · Player Props

Nick Chubb

RB · Cleveland Browns

Receiving Yards

Baltimore Ravens vs Cleveland Browns · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 7:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Nick Chubb Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-118/-112).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 7.5 @ -108 before it was bet up to 20.5 @ -118.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Browns are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script.
The Cleveland Browns have called the 6th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 64.5 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 40.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 5th-most in football.
Nick Chubb has notched a whopping 2.0 air yards per game this year: 75th percentile among running backs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
The Cleveland Browns O-line profiles as the 2nd-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all passing game statistics across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns as the 5th-least pass-centric offense in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 57.1% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Browns to call the least total plays on the slate this week with 61.0 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Nick Chubb's receiving reliability have worsened this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 78.3% to 75.1%.
Nick Chubb's receiving efficiency has declined this year, accumulating a measly 5.44 yards-per-target compared to a 6.41 figure last year.
The Baltimore Ravens pass defense has been quite strong when opposing running backs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 6.66 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 5th-least in the league.

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