Nick Chubb Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

NFL · Player Props

Nick Chubb

RB · Cleveland Browns

Receiving Yards

Atlanta Falcons vs Cleveland Browns · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 4:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Nick Chubb Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (+120/-150).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ +135 before it was bet up to 10.5 @ +120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cleveland Browns have played in the 2nd-most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to result in increased pass volume, reduced running volume, and improved passing attack performance when facing better conditions in this week's game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Nick Chubb has played on 56.2% of his team's snaps this year, placing him in the 79th percentile among running backs.
The Cleveland Browns offensive line profiles as the 7th-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
The Atlanta Falcons pass defense has allowed the 7th-highest Completion% in the NFL (84.6%) to running backs since the start of last season (84.6%).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns to be the 3rd-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 52.3% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 124.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Nick Chubb has totaled a measly 0.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: just 21st percentile among RBs.
Nick Chubb's receiving efficiency has tailed off this season, averaging a measly 5.26 yards-per-target compared to a 6.42 rate last season.
The Atlanta Falcons defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs just 2.43 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 9th-fastest in football since the start of last season.