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Nick Chubb

Nick Chubb Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 11

Buffalo Bills vs Cleveland Browns

Nick Chubb Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-105/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 8.5 @ -106 before it was bet up to 8.5 @ -105.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Browns are a 3-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.

The Cleveland Browns offensive line ranks as the 4th-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.

Nick Chubb's ability to pick up extra yardage has been refined this year, averaging 8.85 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a mere 6.10 figure last year.

The Buffalo Bills pass defense has allowed the 6th-highest Completion% in football (86%) to RBs this year (86.0%).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns as the 4th-least pass-oriented offense in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 56.3% pass rate.

THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns offense to be the 8th-slowest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 29.10 seconds per play.

Nick Chubb's pass-catching efficiency has declined this year, accumulating a mere 5.15 yards-per-target compared to a 6.41 figure last year.

The Buffalo Bills pass defense has displayed good efficiency vs. running backs this year, conceding 5.17 yards-per-target to the position: the 7th-least in football.

The Buffalo Bills pass defense has performed very well when opposing running backs have gotten into space, yielding an average of 6.34 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 5th-least in football.

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