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Nick Chubb

Nick Chubb Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 10

Miami Dolphins vs Cleveland Browns

Nick Chubb Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-105/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 8.5 @ -108 before it was bet up to 8.5 @ -105.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Browns are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.

The Cleveland Browns have run the 4th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 62.4 plays per game.

The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

The Cleveland Browns offensive line ranks as the best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.

Nick Chubb's talent in grinding out extra yardage have improved this season, notching 9.70 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a measly 6.10 mark last season.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns to be the 9th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 54.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 127.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Nick Chubb's pass-game efficiency has tailed off this year, notching a measly 5.61 yards-per-target vs a 6.41 figure last year.

The Miami Dolphins pass defense has excelled when opposing running backs have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 5.33 yards-after-the-catch this year: the least in the NFL.

The Miami Dolphins defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a measly 2.36 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 3rd-best in the NFL since the start of last season.

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