Nick Chubb Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Nick Chubb

NFL · Player Props

Nick Chubb

RB · Cleveland Browns

Carries

Cleveland Browns vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 15, 2024

Updated Dec 16, 2024 1:06 AM EST

Analysis

Nick Chubb Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-102/-128).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 11.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 11.5 @ -128.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is expected by the predictive model to see 148.3 plays on offense run: the highest number on the slate this week.
The largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Browns this year (a massive 62.8 per game on average).
Windy weather conditions (like the 17-mph being forecasted in this game) generally mean lessened passing efficiency, lower air attack volume, and increased rush volume.
The projections expect Nick Chubb to accumulate 14.8 rush attempts in this week's contest, on balance, putting him in the 80th percentile when it comes to running backs.
Nick Chubb has been a more integral piece of his offense's running game this season (59.6% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (41.8%).

Favors Under

At a -4.5-point disadvantage, the Browns are underdogs this week, indicating more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their usual game plan.
Our trusted projections expect the Browns as the least run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 21.0% run rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
The Chiefs safeties project as the 5th-best group of safeties in the NFL this year in regard to stopping the run.

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