Nick Chubb Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Nick Chubb

NFL · Player Props

Nick Chubb

RB · Cleveland Browns

Carries

Cleveland Browns vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 8, 2022

Updated Nov 1, 2022 12:21 AM EST

Analysis

Nick Chubb Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-143/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 17.5 @ -112 before it was bet up to 17.5 @ -143.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns to be the 5th-most run-heavy team in the league (in a neutral context) right now with a 42.7% run rate.
The Cleveland Browns have run the 7th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 62.6 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Nick Chubb to notch 16.9 rush attempts in this game, on average, ranking him in the 87th percentile among running backs.
Nick Chubb has earned 60.9% of his offense's carries this year, placing him in the 93rd percentile among running backs.
The Cleveland Browns O-line profiles as the 2nd-best in the NFL this year at opening holes for rushers.

Favors Under

The Browns are a 3.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Browns to call the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.2 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Cleveland Browns have gone up against a stacked the box on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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