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Nick Chubb

Nick Chubb Carries
Player Prop Week 8

Cleveland Browns vs Cincinnati Bengals

 
 
 
Nick Chubb Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-143/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 17.5 @ -112 before it was bet up to 17.5 @ -143.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns to be the 5th-most run-heavy team in the league (in a neutral context) right now with a 42.7% run rate.
  • The Cleveland Browns have run the 7th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 62.6 plays per game.
  • THE BLITZ projects Nick Chubb to notch 16.9 rush attempts in this game, on average, ranking him in the 87th percentile among running backs.
  • Nick Chubb has earned 60.9% of his offense's carries this year, placing him in the 93rd percentile among running backs.
  • The Cleveland Browns O-line profiles as the 2nd-best in the NFL this year at opening holes for rushers.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Browns are a 3.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
  • THE BLITZ projects the Browns to call the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.2 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
  • The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
  • The Cleveland Browns have gone up against a stacked the box on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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