Nick Chubb Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Nick Chubb

NFL · Player Props

Nick Chubb

RB · Cleveland Browns

Carries

Atlanta Falcons vs Cleveland Browns · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 4:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Nick Chubb Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 18.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 19.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns as the 3rd-most run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 47.7% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Nick Chubb to notch 16.4 carries this week, on average, ranking in the 86th percentile among RBs.
Nick Chubb has garnered 58.5% of his team's carries this year, ranking him in the 88th percentile among RBs.
The Cleveland Browns offensive line profiles as the best in the league since the start of last season at opening holes for rushers.
The Atlanta Falcons linebackers grade out as the 4th-worst LB corps in the NFL since the start of last season when it comes to defending the run.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 124.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Cleveland Browns have played in the 2nd-most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to result in increased pass volume, reduced running volume, and improved passing attack performance when facing better conditions in this week's game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
The Cleveland Browns have gone up against a stacked the box on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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