Nick Chubb Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 3

NFL · Player Props

Nick Chubb

RB · Cleveland Browns

Carries

Cleveland Browns vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 23, 2022 2:45 AM UTC

Analysis

Nick Chubb Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 16.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 16.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Browns are a 4.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns to be the 2nd-most run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 54.1% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Browns to run the least offensive plays among all teams this week with 61.9 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 19-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Nick Chubb to accrue 17.3 rush attempts in this contest, on average, putting him in the 95th percentile among running backs.

Favors Under

The Cleveland Browns will be starting backup QB Jacoby Brissett in this game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The Cleveland Browns have played in the 2nd-most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the league since the start of last season, which should result in increased pass volume, lower running volume, and improved passing offense performance when facing better conditions in this week's game.
THE BLITZ projects Nick Chubb to be a less important option in his offense's run game this week (51.0% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (61.6% in games he has played).
The Pittsburgh Steelers defensive ends grade out as the 3rd-best DE corps in football since the start of last season when it comes to run defense.
The Cleveland Browns have been faced with a stacked the box on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.