Nick Chubb Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Nick Chubb

NFL · Player Props

Nick Chubb

RB · Cleveland Browns

Carries

Cleveland Browns vs New Orleans Saints · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 24, 2022 8:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Nick Chubb Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 18.5 @ +102 before it was bet up to 18.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Browns are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns to be the 5th-most run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 53.6% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns as the 2nd-quickest paced defense in football (in a neutral context) at the present time, causing opposing offenses to average 27.10 seconds per snap.
The weather report calls for 26-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Nick Chubb to total 18.5 rush attempts this week, on average, ranking him in the 96th percentile among running backs.

Favors Under

The New Orleans Saints defensive ends profile as the 6th-best unit in the league this year when it comes to defending the run.
The Cleveland Browns have been faced with a stacked the box on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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