Nick Chubb Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Nick Chubb

NFL · Player Props

Nick Chubb

RB · Cleveland Browns

Carries

Houston Texans vs Cleveland Browns · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 4:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Nick Chubb Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 19.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 19.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Browns are a 3.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns to be the 4th-most run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 49.3% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Cleveland Browns have run the 3rd-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 62.7 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Nick Chubb to garner 18.3 carries in this game, on average, ranking him in the 94th percentile among RBs.
Nick Chubb has received 62.8% of his offense's carries this year, placing him in the 94th percentile among running backs.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-least plays run among all games this week at 126.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
The Cleveland Browns have been faced with a stacked the box on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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