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Nick Chubb Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-100/-130).
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns to be the 4th-most run-heavy team in football (in a neutral context) right now with a 43.7% run rate.THE BLITZ projects Nick Chubb to earn 15.3 carries in this contest, on average, placing him in the 83rd percentile among running backs.Nick Chubb has earned 60.5% of his offense's rush attempts this year, ranking in the 92nd percentile among RBs.The Cleveland Browns O-line grades out as the best in football this year at opening holes for runners.The Cleveland Browns have gone for it on 4th down 22.2% of the time since the start of last season (9th-most in football), which generally means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive statistics across the board.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The Browns are a 3-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns offense to be the 8th-slowest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 29.10 seconds per play.This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.The Cleveland Browns have faced a stacked the box on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.The Buffalo Bills have stacked the box vs. opponents on 19.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
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