Nick Chubb Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Nick Chubb

NFL · Player Props

Nick Chubb

RB · Cleveland Browns

Carries

Miami Dolphins vs Cleveland Browns · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 13, 2022 9:06 PM EST

Analysis

Nick Chubb Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-130/-100).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns as the 6th-most run-oriented team in the league (in a neutral context) right now with a 43.5% run rate.
The Cleveland Browns have run the 4th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 62.4 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Nick Chubb to total 16.3 rush attempts this week, on average, ranking in the 85th percentile among RBs.
Nick Chubb has been given 60.7% of his offense's rush attempts this year, putting him in the 92nd percentile among RBs.
The Cleveland Browns offensive line grades out as the 3rd-best in the league this year at opening holes for runners.

Favors Under

The Browns are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 127.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The Cleveland Browns have faced a stacked the box on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Miami Dolphins have stacked the box vs. opponents on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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