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Nelson Agholor

Nelson Agholor Receptions
Player Prop Week 7

New England Patriots vs Chicago Bears

Nelson Agholor Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+117/-157).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.

The New England Patriots offensive line ranks as the 5th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive impact on all pass game statistics across the board.

Nelson Agholor's possession skills have improved this season, with his Completion% jumping from 62.6% to 73.7%.

The Chicago Bears pass defense has allowed the highest Completion% in football (68.9%) vs. WRs this year (68.9%).

The Chicago Bears defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.51 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 3rd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Patriots are a massive 8.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots as the least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 53.5% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to run the least total plays on the slate this week with 62.0 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The New England Patriots have run the 8th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling just 55.7 plays per game.

Opposing QBs have averaged 28.8 pass attempts per game versus the Chicago Bears defense this year: least in the league.

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