Nelson Agholor Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Nelson Agholor

NFL · Player Props

Nelson Agholor

WR · New England Patriots

Receptions

New England Patriots vs Detroit Lions · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Nelson Agholor Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+135/-180).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -165 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -180.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The New England Patriots will be forced to use backup quarterback Bailey Zappe in this week's game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
Opposing offenses have averaged 40.2 pass attempts per game versus the Detroit Lions defense this year: 7th-most in the NFL.
The New England Patriots offensive line ranks as the 5th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all pass attack stats across the board.
Nelson Agholor's pass-catching performance gotten a boost this season, compiling 3.5 yards per game vs just 2.5 last season.
Nelson Agholor's receiving reliability have been refined this year, with his Completion% rising from 62.6% to 78.3%.

Favors Under

The Patriots are a 3-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots as the 3rd-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 52.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots as the 5th-most sluggish paced defense in football (context-neutralized) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 29.07 seconds per play.
The weather forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
The New England Patriots O-line has allowed their quarterback a measly 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing attack stats across the board.

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