Nelson Agholor Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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NFL · Player Props

Nelson Agholor

WR · Baltimore Ravens

Receiving Yards

Baltimore Ravens vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 6, 2023 3:56 AM UTC

Analysis

Nelson Agholor Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 10.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Baltimore Ravens feature a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to tilt 3.2% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
The Seattle Seahawks defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, inducing opposing teams to attempt the 6th-most passes in the league (39.0 per game) this year.
In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the strong effect it has on all passing game stats), the offensive line of the Ravens profiles as the 6th-best in football this year.
Nelson Agholor's possession skills have gotten better this year, with his Adjusted Completion% jumping from 60.0% to 79.4%.
Nelson Agholor's receiving effectiveness has been refined this year, totaling 10.58 adjusted yards-per-target compared to just 6.98 figure last year.

Favors Under

This week's spread suggests a rushing game script for the Ravens, who are favored by 5.5 points.
Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Ravens to pass on 50.2% of their opportunities: the 2nd-lowest rate on the slate this week.
At the moment, the 2nd-most sluggish paced team in football (in a neutral context) according to the model is the Ravens.
Nelson Agholor's 2.94 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this season signifies a material decrease in his effectiveness in the open field over last season's 4.9% mark.
The Seahawks pass defense has performed very well when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, conceding an average of 3.30 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 5th-fewest in the NFL.