Nelson Agholor Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 24.5 (-120/-110).
Key Factors
Favors Over
The predictive model expects the Baltimore Ravens offensive approach to lean 2.2% more towards the passing attack than it did last season (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Todd Monken now calling the plays.
The Lions defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, eliciting opposing teams to attempt the most passes in football (42.0 per game) this year.
After accruing 38.0 air yards per game last season, Nelson Agholor has made big progress this season, currently averaging 44.0 per game.
Nelson Agholor's 43.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this year conveys a a meaningful improvement in his receiving proficiency over last year's 25.0 mark.
Nelson Agholor's 81.8% Adjusted Completion Rate this year signifies a a noteworthy boost in his receiving prowess over last year's 60.0% rate.
Favors Under
This week's spread indicates a running game script for the Ravens, who are favored by 3 points.
Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Baltimore Ravens to pass on 49.4% of their chances: the lowest rate among all teams this week.
Right now, the 9th-slowest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Ravens.
The weather report calls for 18-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
Nelson Agholor's ability to grind out extra yardage has diminished this year, compiling a measly 3.12 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 4.87 rate last year.