Nelson Agholor Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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NFL · Player Props

Nelson Agholor

WR · Baltimore Ravens

Receiving Yards

Tennessee Titans vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 15, 2023 7:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Nelson Agholor Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 21.5 (-110/-118).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 21.5 @ -113 before it was bet down to 21.5 @ -118.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Baltimore Ravens have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to lean 2.3% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
Nelson Agholor has compiled significantly more air yards this year (46.0 per game) than he did last year (38.0 per game).
Nelson Agholor has notched substantially more adjusted receiving yards per game (44.0) this year than he did last year (25.0).
Nelson Agholor's possession skills have gotten a boost this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate jumping from 60.0% to 84.5%.
Nelson Agholor's pass-catching efficiency has been refined this season, compiling 10.40 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a measly 6.98 figure last season.

Favors Under

With a 5-point advantage, the Ravens are favored this week, indicating more of a reliance on rushing than their normal game plan.
Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Ravens to pass on 52.2% of their plays: the 3rd-lowest rate among all teams this week.
Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Baltimore Ravens are expected by our trusted projection set to run only 63.2 total plays in this contest: the 10th-fewest among all teams this week.
Nelson Agholor's skills in picking up extra yardage have worsened this season, averaging just 1.50 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 4.87 rate last season.
The Titans pass defense has performed very well when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, yielding an average of 3.59 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 4th-fewest in the NFL.