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Nelson Agholor

Nelson Agholor Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 4

Cleveland Browns vs Baltimore Ravens

Nelson Agholor Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 25.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 23.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 25.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Baltimore Ravens will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and The leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to tilt 2.4% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).

The leading projections forecast this game to see the 5th-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 130.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The projections expect Nelson Agholor to be a more integral piece of his offense's pass attack in this game (18.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (12.0% in games he has played).

The Baltimore Ravens O-line profiles as the 2nd-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.

Nelson Agholor's possession skills have gotten better this year, with his Completion% rising from 60.0% to 91.2%.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The predictive model expects the Baltimore Ravens as the 4th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 52.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

Opposing teams have averaged 29.6 pass attempts per game against the Cleveland Browns defense since the start of last season: 3rd-fewest in football.

The Browns defense has allowed the 2nd-fewest receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 127.0) versus WRs since the start of last season.

The Browns pass defense has conceded the 2nd-lowest Completion% in the league (60.9%) vs. wideouts since the start of last season (60.9%).

The Cleveland Browns safeties rank as the 8th-best collection of safeties in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.

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