Nelson Agholor Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Nelson Agholor

WR · Baltimore Ravens

Receiving Yards

Baltimore Ravens vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 11:26 PM EST

Analysis

Nelson Agholor Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 25.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Baltimore Ravens boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.8% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 134.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Baltimore Ravens offensive line ranks as the 3rd-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a positive impact on all pass game stats across the board.
The Indianapolis Colts pass defense has not been good when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, giving up an average of 4.83 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 6th-most in the league.
The Indianapolis Colts safeties rank as the 2nd-worst collection of safeties in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

Favors Under

The Ravens are a massive 7.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens as the least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 49.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 31.5 pass attempts per game against the Indianapolis Colts defense since the start of last season: 8th-least in the NFL.
Nelson Agholor has been among the least effective receivers in the NFL, averaging just 7.42 yards-per-target since the start of last season while checking in at the 20th percentile among WRs
The Indianapolis Colts defense has surrendered the 10th-least receiving yards per game in football (just 138.0) versus WRs since the start of last season.