Nelson Agholor Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Nelson Agholor

NFL · Player Props

Nelson Agholor

WR · Baltimore Ravens

Receiving Yards

Baltimore Ravens vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 10, 2023 6:01 PM EST

Analysis

Nelson Agholor Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-105/-125).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Ravens feature a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to lean 3.5% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Ravens are expected by the projection model to run 66.7 total plays in this contest: the 6th-highest number among all teams this week.
Opposing teams have averaged 37.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Los Angeles Rams defense this year: 10th-most in the NFL.
As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the positive impact it has on all air attack stats), the offensive line of the Baltimore Ravens grades out as the 2nd-best in the league this year.
Nelson Agholor's ball-catching skills have improved this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate rising from 60.0% to 73.3%.

Favors Under

This week's spread suggests an extreme rushing game script for the Ravens, who are a huge favorite by 7.5 points.
The projections expect the Ravens as the least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 48.0% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
Nelson Agholor has put up quite a few less air yards this year (29.0 per game) than he did last year (38.0 per game).
Nelson Agholor's talent in generating extra yardage have worsened this season, compiling a mere 3.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 4.87 figure last season.
The Los Angeles Rams pass defense has conceded the lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (55.5%) versus WRs this year (55.5%).

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