Nelson Agholor Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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NFL · Player Props

Nelson Agholor

WR · Baltimore Ravens

Receiving Yards

Baltimore Ravens vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 17, 2023 1:16 AM EST

Analysis

Nelson Agholor Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (+100/-130).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Ravens offense to lean 3.6% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Todd Monken now calling the plays.
Still weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being predicted in this game) generally mean increased passing efficiency, increased TD potential, increased pass volume, and lower rush volume.
The Ravens offensive line grades out as the 7th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all air attack stats across the board.
Nelson Agholor's 77.2% Adjusted Catch% this year reflects a noteable growth in his pass-catching proficiency over last year's 60.0% figure.
Nelson Agholor's 9.8 adjusted yards per target this season marks a material boost in his pass-catching prowess over last season's 7.0 mark.

Favors Under

This week's line implies a running game script for the Ravens, who are favored by 3.5 points.
Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Ravens to pass on 51.6% of their chances: the 2nd-lowest rate on the slate this week.
Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Ravens are anticipated by the predictive model to run only 62.8 offensive plays in this contest: the 6th-fewest on the slate this week.
After totaling 38.0 air yards per game last season, Nelson Agholor has seen a big decrease this season, currently sitting at 31.0 per game.
Nelson Agholor's talent in picking up extra yardage have tailed off this year, notching a measly 3.06 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 4.87 figure last year.