Nelson Agholor Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Nelson Agholor

NFL · Player Props

Nelson Agholor

WR · New England Patriots

Receiving Yards

New England Patriots vs Chicago Bears · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 25, 2022 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Nelson Agholor Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (+108/-142).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 22.5 @ -146 before it was bet down to 19.5 @ -142.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The New England Patriots offensive line ranks as the 5th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive impact on all pass game statistics across the board.
Nelson Agholor has accrued quite a few more receiving yards per game (44.0) this season than he did last season (33.0).
Nelson Agholor's pass-catching efficiency has gotten better this season, notching 11.50 yards-per-target compared to a measly 8.39 rate last season.
Nelson Agholor's skills in picking up extra yardage have improved this season, notching 6.29 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a mere 2.92 figure last season.

Favors Under

The Patriots are a massive 8.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots as the least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 53.5% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to run the least total plays on the slate this week with 62.0 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New England Patriots have run the 8th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling just 55.7 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have averaged 28.8 pass attempts per game versus the Chicago Bears defense this year: least in the league.

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