Nelson Agholor Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Nelson Agholor

NFL · Player Props

Nelson Agholor

WR · New England Patriots

Receiving Yards

New England Patriots vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 24, 2022 5:16 PM UTC

Analysis

Nelson Agholor Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 34.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 34.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 34.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Patriots are a 3-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots to be the 9th-most pass-centric team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 63.6% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots offense to be the 8th-quickest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 26.93 seconds per snap.
Opposing teams have averaged 37.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year: 7th-most in football.
The New England Patriots offensive line grades out as the 10th-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive effect on all air attack statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
Nelson Agholor has gone out for fewer passes this season (57.6% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (83.0%).
Nelson Agholor has compiled quite a few less air yards this year (43.0 per game) than he did last year (54.0 per game).
Nelson Agholor has been among the least sure-handed receivers in the NFL, catching a measly 62.7% of balls thrown his way this year, ranking in the 25th percentile among wide receivers
Nelson Agholor's pass-game effectiveness has declined this year, accumulating a measly 7.27 yards-per-target vs a 8.40 mark last year.

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