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Nelson Agholor

Nelson Agholor Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 13

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills

Nelson Agholor Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-115/-112).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 21.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 20.5 @ -112.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Patriots are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots to be the 10th-most pass-oriented offense in football (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 62.4% pass rate.

THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to run the 9th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 66.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

Nelson Agholor's possession skills have improved this year, with his Completion% jumping from 62.2% to 71.6%.

Nelson Agholor's pass-game efficiency has been refined this year, totaling 9.47 yards-per-target vs a mere 8.41 rate last year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The New England Patriots have called the 6th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 54.9 plays per game.

Nelson Agholor has been used less as a potential target this season (51.3% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (80.7%).

Nelson Agholor has put up significantly fewer air yards this year (38.0 per game) than he did last year (58.0 per game).

The Buffalo Bills pass defense has performed very well when opposing WRs have gotten into space, giving up an average of 3.35 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 2nd-least in football.

The Buffalo Bills linebackers rank as the 2nd-best LB corps in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

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