Nelson Agholor Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Nelson Agholor

NFL · Player Props

Nelson Agholor

WR · New England Patriots

Receiving TD

Las Vegas Raiders vs New England Patriots · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:26 AM UTC

Analysis

Nelson Agholor Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+251/-408).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -393 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -408.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Nelson Agholor to be a much bigger part of his team's passing attack near the end zone this week (14.0% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (5.9% in games he has played).
Nelson Agholor's possession skills have improved this season, with his Completion% rising from 62.2% to 68.4%.
The Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has conceded the 2nd-highest Completion% in the league (71%) vs. wide receivers this year (71.0%).
The Las Vegas Raiders linebackers grade out as the worst unit in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-least plays run among all games this week at 127.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The New England Patriots have run the 4th-least plays in the league this year, averaging a mere 53.9 plays per game.
Nelson Agholor has put up significantly fewer air yards this season (39.0 per game) than he did last season (54.0 per game).
The New England Patriots O-line has given their QB just 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all pass game metrics across the board.
The New England Patriots have gone no-huddle on just 2.6% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (4th-least in football). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat production.

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