Nelson Agholor Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 14

reorder

NFL · Player Props

Nelson Agholor

WR · New England Patriots

Receiving TD

Arizona Cardinals vs New England Patriots · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 13, 2022 12:26 AM EST

Analysis

Nelson Agholor Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+331/-623).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +401 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +331.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to call the 4th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 67.7 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing offenses have averaged 37.4 pass attempts per game versus the Arizona Cardinals defense this year: 4th-most in the league.
THE BLITZ projects Nelson Agholor to be a more integral piece of his team's pass attack near the end zone this week (14.0% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (6.2% in games he has played).
Nelson Agholor's possession skills have been refined this season, with his Completion% jumping from 62.2% to 73.5%.

Favors Under

The New England Patriots have called the least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a lowly 54.3 plays per game.
Nelson Agholor has accumulated quite a few less air yards this year (36.0 per game) than he did last year (54.0 per game).
Nelson Agholor's 27.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably worse this season than it was last season at 35.4.
The New England Patriots offensive line has allowed their quarterback a measly 2.53 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all passing game statistics across the board.
The Arizona Cardinals defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 10th-quickest in the NFL since the start of last season.