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Nelson Agholor

Nelson Agholor Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 13

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills

Nelson Agholor Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+431/-973).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Patriots are a 4-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to run the 8th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 66.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

Nelson Agholor's possession skills have improved this year, with his Completion% jumping from 62.6% to 71.0%.

The Buffalo Bills defense has given up the 5th-most TDs through the air in the NFL to wideouts: 1.09 per game this year.

The New England Patriots have faced a stacked the box on 27.7% of their plays since the start of last season, most in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The New England Patriots have called the 6th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 54.9 plays per game.

Nelson Agholor has put up significantly fewer air yards this year (38.0 per game) than he did last year (58.0 per game).

Nelson Agholor's 29.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit worse this season than it was last season at 37.0.

The Buffalo Bills linebackers rank as the 2nd-best LB corps in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

The New England Patriots O-line has given their quarterback a measly 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing game metrics across the board.

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