Najee Harris Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Najee Harris

NFL · Player Props

Najee Harris

RB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Rushing Yards

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 8, 2023 7:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Najee Harris Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 48.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Steelers are forecasted by the projection model to run 67.2 total plays in this game: the 2nd-most among all teams this week.
The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
The leading projections forecast Najee Harris to accrue 15.6 rush attempts this week, on average, ranking him in the 87th percentile among RBs.
Out of all running backs, Najee Harris ranks in the 92nd percentile for carries this year, taking on 63.6% of the workload in his offense's ground game.
The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line profiles as the 10th-best in football last year at opening holes for rushers.

Favors Under

The Steelers are a 4.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Pittsburgh Steelers to run on 40.4% of their downs: the 9th-lowest rate on the slate this week.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have called the 5th-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a measly 53.5 plays per game.
Najee Harris has rushed for a lot fewer adjusted yards per game (46.0) this year than he did last year (59.0).
The Ravens defense has had the 3rd-best efficiency against opposing run games since the start of last season, yielding just 3.99 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC).

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