Najee Harris Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Najee Harris

NFL · Player Props

Najee Harris

RB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Rushing Yards

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Najee Harris Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 44.5 (+108/-148).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 43.5 @ -117 before it was bet up to 44.5 @ +108.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 135.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Najee Harris to accumulate 16.0 carries in this game, on average, ranking him in the 86th percentile among RBs.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have gone no-huddle on 15.2% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-most in the NFL). This quickens the pace, leading to more volume and stat accumulation.

Favors Under

The Steelers are an enormous 9.5-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers as the least run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 38.1% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Najee Harris has been a much smaller piece of his team's running game this season (67.7% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (78.8%).
Najee Harris has rushed for many fewer yards per game (42.0) this year than he did last year (63.0).
Najee Harris's running efficiency (3.06 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in the NFL this year (2nd percentile among RBs).

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