Najee Harris Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Najee Harris

NFL · Player Props

Najee Harris

RB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Rushing Yards

Pittsburgh Steelers vs New York Jets · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 5:10 PM UTC

Analysis

Najee Harris Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 71.5 (-118/-112).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 65.5 @ -122 before it was bet up to 71.5 @ -118.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Steelers are a 3-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the most plays run on the slate this week at 138.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 7th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a whopping 60.5 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Najee Harris to notch 19.2 rush attempts this week, on average, ranking in the 95th percentile among running backs.
Najee Harris has averaged 60.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the highest figures in the NFL among running backs (92nd percentile).

Favors Under

Najee Harris has been a much smaller piece of his team's run game this year (63.9% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (78.8%).
The Pittsburgh Steelers O-line grades out as the 5th-worst in the league since the start of last season in run blocking.
Najee Harris's rushing effectiveness (3.21 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in the NFL this year (12th percentile among running backs).
Najee Harris has been among the bottom RBs in the NFL at generating extra running yardage, averaging just 2.50 yards-after-contact this year while ranking in the 21st percentile.
The New York Jets have stacked the box against opponents on 22.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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