Najee Harris Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 18

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Najee Harris

NFL · Player Props

Najee Harris

RB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Rushing Yards

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cleveland Browns · Week 18, 2022

Updated Jan 8, 2023 9:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Najee Harris Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 72.5 (+115/-145).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 72.5 @ -105 before it was bet down to 72.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 8th-most run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 46.0% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 61.5 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Najee Harris to earn 16.1 rush attempts in this game, on average, ranking in the 89th percentile among running backs.
Najee Harris has generated 58.0 rushing yards per game this year, one of the biggest figures in the NFL among RBs (79th percentile).
The Cleveland Browns defense has produced the 7th-worst efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, conceding 5.13 yards-per-carry.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 127.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Najee Harris has been a much smaller piece of his team's running game this year (59.5% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last year (78.8%).
Najee Harris's running efficiency (3.75 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in football this year (11th percentile among RBs).
The Pittsburgh Steelers have risked going for it on 4th down a measly 14.9% of the time since the start of last season (5th-least in the league), which usually means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.

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