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Najee Harris

Najee Harris Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 18

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cleveland Browns

 
 
 
Najee Harris Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 72.5 (+115/-145).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 72.5 @ -105 before it was bet down to 72.5 @ -145.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 8th-most run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 46.0% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 61.5 plays per game.
  • THE BLITZ projects Najee Harris to earn 16.1 rush attempts in this game, on average, ranking in the 89th percentile among running backs.
  • Najee Harris has generated 58.0 rushing yards per game this year, one of the biggest figures in the NFL among RBs (79th percentile).
  • The Cleveland Browns defense has produced the 7th-worst efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, conceding 5.13 yards-per-carry.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 127.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • The forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
  • Najee Harris has been a much smaller piece of his team's running game this year (59.5% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last year (78.8%).
  • Najee Harris's running efficiency (3.75 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in football this year (11th percentile among RBs).
  • The Pittsburgh Steelers have risked going for it on 4th down a measly 14.9% of the time since the start of last season (5th-least in the league), which usually means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.

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