Najee Harris Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Najee Harris

NFL · Player Props

Najee Harris

RB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Rushing Yards

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 11, 2022 5:41 PM UTC

Analysis

Najee Harris Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 53.5 (+111/-146).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 58.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 53.5 @ -146.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Pittsburgh Steelers have called the 6th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a monstrous 61.7 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Najee Harris to total 13.4 carries this week, on average, putting him in the 78th percentile among RBs.
Najee Harris has grinded out 54.0 rushing yards per game this year, one of the biggest marks in the NFL among running backs (77th percentile).
The Pittsburgh Steelers have gone no-huddle on 15.2% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-most in the league). This speeds up the pace, resulting in more volume and stat production.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the least plays run on the slate this week at 123.1 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Najee Harris to be a much smaller part of his team's run game this week (49.8% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (60.0% in games he has played).
Najee Harris's rushing efficiency (3.72 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in the NFL this year (15th percentile among running backs).
Opposing teams have rushed for the 3rd-least yards in the NFL (just 83 per game) vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense this year.
The Baltimore Ravens defensive tackles grade out as the 7th-best collection of DTs in the league this year in regard to stopping the run.

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