Najee Harris Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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NFL · Player Props

Najee Harris

RB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Rushing Yards

Pittsburgh Steelers vs New Orleans Saints · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 14, 2022 12:11 AM EST

Analysis

Najee Harris Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 43.5 (-135/+103).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 43.5 @ -116 before it was bet up to 43.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Pittsburgh Steelers offense has played at the 5th-quickest pace in the league (in a neutral context) this year, averaging 26.88 seconds per snap.
The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Najee Harris to accumulate 15.1 rush attempts in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 84th percentile among RBs.
The New Orleans Saints have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 13.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the league. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have gone no-huddle on 15.2% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-most in the league). This speeds up the pace, leading to more volume and stat production.

Favors Under

The Steelers rank as the 10th-least run-oriented team in the league (context-neutralized) this year with a 36.6% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects Najee Harris to be much less involved in his offense's rushing attack this week (52.0% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (65.2% in games he has played).
The Pittsburgh Steelers O-line profiles as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year at run-game blocking.
Najee Harris has run for significantly fewer yards per game (43.0) this season than he did last season (63.0).
Najee Harris's rushing effectiveness (3.20 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in the NFL this year (2nd percentile among RBs).