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Najee Harris

Najee Harris Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 8

Philadelphia Eagles vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Najee Harris Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+216/-331).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +220 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +216.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 131.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Najee Harris has earned 59.1% of his team's red zone rush attempts this year, ranking in the 91st percentile among running backs.

Opposing teams have run for the 10th-most TDs in the NFL (1.00 per game) vs. the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year.

The Pittsburgh Steelers have gone no-huddle on 15.2% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-most in the league). This speeds up the pace, leading to more volume and stat-padding.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Steelers are a heavy 11.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers as the 8th-least run-oriented offense in the league near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 40.8% red zone run rate.

The Pittsburgh Steelers O-line grades out as the 9th-worst in the NFL this year at blocking for the run game.

Najee Harris has run for 0.00 touchdowns per game on the ground this year, one of the smallest marks in football among RBs (1st percentile).

The Philadelphia Eagles defensive ends profile as the 2nd-best group of DEs in the NFL this year in regard to defending the run.

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