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Najee Harris

Najee Harris Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 6

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Najee Harris Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+211/-321).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +218 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +211.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Steelers rank as the 8th-most run-centric offense in the NFL near the end zone (context-neutralized) this year with a 49.4% red zone run rate.

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 135.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Najee Harris has earned 60.0% of his offense's red zone rush attempts this year, putting him in the 92nd percentile among RBs.

The Pittsburgh Steelers have gone no-huddle on 15.2% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-most in the NFL). This quickens the pace, leading to more volume and stat accumulation.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Steelers are an enormous 9.5-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.

Najee Harris has rushed for 0.00 TDs per game on the ground this year, one of the smallest figures in the NFL among running backs (1st percentile).

Opposing squads have run for the 7th-least TDs in the NFL (0.60 per game) against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties rank as the 4th-best collection of safeties in football this year in regard to run defense.

The Pittsburgh Steelers have gone for it on 4th down just 14.9% of the time since the start of last season (5th-least in football), which generally means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.

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