Najee Harris Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Najee Harris

NFL · Player Props

Najee Harris

RB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Rushing TD

Buffalo Bills vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Najee Harris Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+204/-307).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +210 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +204.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 7th-most run-heavy team in the league near the end zone (in a neutral context) right now with a 45.5% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 137.0 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Najee Harris has earned 53.8% of his offense's red zone rush attempts this year, putting him in the 86th percentile among running backs.
Opposing teams have run for the 8th-most TDs in football (1.00 per game) vs. the Buffalo Bills defense this year.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have gone no-huddle on 15.2% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-most in the NFL). This speeds up the pace, leading to more volume and stat production.

Favors Under

The Steelers are a giant 14-point underdog this week, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 8th-least plays in the league this year, averaging just 55.0 plays per game.
Najee Harris has rushed for 0.00 TDs per game on the ground this year, one of the lowest figures in the league among RBs (1st percentile).
The Buffalo Bills defensive ends profile as the 2nd-best unit in the league this year with their run defense.
The Buffalo Bills have stacked the box versus opponents on 19.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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