Najee Harris Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Najee Harris

NFL · Player Props

Najee Harris

RB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Rushing TD

Pittsburgh Steelers vs New York Jets · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 4:45 PM EST

Analysis

Najee Harris Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+139/-191).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +150 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +139.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Steelers are a 3-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 10th-most run-centric offense in the NFL near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 43.7% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the most plays run on the slate this week at 138.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 7th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a whopping 60.5 plays per game.
Najee Harris has been given 54.5% of his team's red zone carries this year, ranking in the 87th percentile among RBs.

Favors Under

The Pittsburgh Steelers O-line grades out as the 5th-worst in the league since the start of last season in run blocking.
The New York Jets have stacked the box against opponents on 22.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have elected to go for it on 4th down a lowly 14.9% of the time since the start of last season (5th-least in football), which generally means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have incorporated some form of misdirection on just 35.9% of their play-calls since the start of last season (2nd-least in the NFL), which likely makes the offense more predictable and less effective.

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